This month is the National Meeting of the Popular Party. Much has been talked about the possibility of Juan Costa’s possible candidacy for removing the throne of Mariano Rajoy. I think the current situation of the Party made me thought about to the different possibilities.

If Juan Costa (or someone else) is postulated for candidate to the presidency of the Popular Party, the options for him are very small. A confrontation with Mariano Rajoy now is a high risk that neither Juan Costa nor any other on the PP can take. For various reasons, but the principal is that this candidacy will not have the support of the regional leaders, who have the captive support of the delegates.

As for Mariano Rajoy, he wants two opposite things. On one hand, if that alternative candidacy will be presented, that will give him, in case of victory, the legimacy in front of the politic opinion, and the basis of the Party. But, on the other hand, he would not like to have an opponent: there is a (low) possibility to lose. Low. But this is something that Mariano Rajoy fears.

The other scenario is Mariano Rajoy leading the Popular Party and, as is foreseen, the PP will not have good results on the three next elections coming soon: for the European Parliament, for the Basque Autonomic Parliament, and also for the Galician Autonomic Parliament. These two are specially important, and any bad result would lead to the a change on the PP. In this scenario, and with the current situation, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón will be on a very good position to lead the PP, when Mr. Rajoy will resign. When that will happen, this will be the time for fighting. The time for the real candidates for fight for leading the PP.

This is the dilemma for any alternative candidacy to Mariano Rajoy in the next National Meeting in Valencia. To present it, or to wait until the debacle of the Popular Party on the next elections. Because there is little space for success, the fight will be delayed. The only possibility is this alternative candidacy to have enough support to be perceived as a real leader on the PP, capable of substituting Rajoy when the fiasco will come, and capable of confronting the possible attempts of other leaders (such as Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón) or the regional leaders. This is the real possibility. This is the dilemma.

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