The costs of the “not Spain”
The nationalists want the independence. Here and in Canada. Here in Spain and in New Zealand. This is true. This is a tautology. Most (for not to say all) of the people that are commenting against my view of the nationalists want the independence.
But… Do they know the consequences of this? Let me write this clearly. And let me differentiate between political and economic consequences.
The economic consequences have been analysed for the Basque Autonomic Region on various documents, from Alberto Abadie and Javier Gardeazabal work, to the recent Mikel Buesa, that can see (a summary) on this link:
In summary, the conclusion for the Basque Country is a decrease of the PIB for until a 15% on the GDP. This is taking into account the next considerations:
- The proclaimed Basque Country will not be a member of the European Union. This has an huge impact on the finances of the new country. First, for the duties applied to the products and services of this new country on the EU members. Second, for the same duties on Spain. There commercial exchange with Spain is now the 54% of the Basque Autonomic Region.
- The basque companies will suffer the effect on having structures on Spain. This will lead to an impact on those companies based on the costs to continue (or discontinue) with the production activities of goods and services.
- The Basque Country will have to assume the competencies that now has Spain, and also to create and manage a new currency. This new currency will have the ne subjected to attacks or speculations, and, more seriously yet, the impact on the foreign accounts. This situation will lead to a high pressure to the new currency in order to devaluate it.
The effects of these considerations are clear. An impact on the GDP mentioned above; an increase of the fiscal pressure on the citizens, a degeneration of the services offered (social security, infrastructures, etc.) due to the lack of funds, an increase of the unemployment (to the 23%). On this analysis, Mr. Buesa forgets to include the costs of the compensation to Spain for the differential increase of investments done in infrastructures, public services, etc., claim that Spain needs to do in order to regularize the cohesion of the rest of territories.
(The same assumptions can be done for the Catalonia Autonomic Region.)
True, now is understandable that Mr. Ibarreche, the president of the Basque Autonomic Region, will want to use terms as a Free Associate State (similar to Puerto Rico), wich will allow him to take advantage of the European Union as a “member”. But I assume Mr. Ibarreche can think we are not silly, and once you want the independence, it will be with all the consequences.
On the political side, the impact of the secession is different on the Basque Country that on Catalonia. On the new Basque Country, once the independence is achieved, there will be an unhidden fight for the power between ETA (now without masks) and the PNV. ETA will not have now any excuse for continuing its terrorists attacks, but there will be a huge confrontation between them. And this can lead, eventually, to a dictatorship in the case ETA will win.
On the other hand, there will be a Spanish community on the new Basque Country that will need to be protected by Spain. And also, the above economic situation can lead to the claim of territories of France and Spain, that will be claimed by the new Basque Country as a way to hide their failure on home affairs (as in any dictatorship). So there can be tensions not only inside the new Basque Country, but also with its neighbors. Assuming this, they will be an increase of the delay for the new Basque Country to join the European Union. I propose a period of a century for so.
On Catalonia the political situation is different; there will not be (initially) such confrontation between political factions, but at the end there will be, as in the previous case, claims for Spanish and French (also Italian!) territories. This could lead to a confrontation with these countries. And also, there will be an extraordinary community of Spanish that will need to be protected. Again, as in the Basque Country.
In other territories of Spain (let me say Galicia) the situation is similar. Galicia has a difference, that is its proximity with Portugal. This is a factor that can be taking into account when analysing the independence of this region.
Well. There is a world of consequences. And a word of silliness around here. My position on this is: you want the independence? Initially no. But, …
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