In Spain, when a person is always presuming of something he did not do, or he cannot achieve, is called phantom. This is always a contemptuous word; it points to a slighty trustworthy person, to whom him (or her) it is not possible to belice anything because always he (or she) will lie.

Mr. Zapatero did today an speech on the United Nations, presuming of the solidity of the financial and banking Spanish system, and also indicating that Spain aspires to overcome in per capita income France in 3 or 4 years. This is not the first prediction of this kind that Mr. Zapatero did: time ago he presumed to overcome Italy on similar parameters, when it was not true.

While Spain is focusing an economic crisis, not only with a cause on the mortgage crisis on USA (because there were a hardening of the credit conditions not only to people but also to companies before summer last year on Spain), the Spanish president cannot presume of having such figures on the mid-term. For various reasons. First because of the crisis is not a one-year issue; I will presume the peak will be on one year or so. This is because not only for the international crisis; there are credit restrictions to banks in Spain. This is because of Spain has lived on cheap money, and now the money is not cheap and the banks and investors (foreigners, most likely) are very careful on giving money to Spanish banks, and if they do so they are aplying some risk premiums. The assets that the Spanish banks have are not easily convertible on liquidity: of the three types of assets that can be convertible, the European Central Bank has admitted the first two. The Spanish banks are only with assets of the third and worst type, those the ECB does not want to admit.

For an economy such as the Spanish, highly dependent of the foreign investment, this credit restrictions to Spanish banks are a problem very difficult to solve. The solution, of course, it will not be because an exercise of false confidence of the Spanish prime minister Mr. Zapatero on the Spanish economy. This is just a exercise of good will, nothing more. The solution needs first a recognition of the crisis, a real analysis by the Spanish government of the problems of the Spanish economy, deeper economic reforms, and a methodical follow-up.

The rest, exercises of good will and that kind of things that Mr. Zapatero is doing, is a phantom exercise. A phantom as president of the government, as prime minister. And Spain does not need a phantom on this position. Spain needs a manager, an enabler, a visionary. Not a phantom.

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